Ray Kurzweil’s new book The Singularity Is Nearer brings back some familiar topics; review here by Ralf Grötker. One is the dualism of mind and body—in Christianity, our soul leaves the body and we can live forever in heaven (unless, of course, we have sinned; in that case, we have another thing coming). For Kurzweil, we can upload our minds to the cloud and live forever (regardless of our sins!). But… your body interacts with your mind, no? And you might want to interact with the outside world? Don’t worry, all those things can be simulated.
When prophecies fail, some prophets re-write them and delay the rapture, apocalypse or singularity. Kurzweil does the opposite—he brings it closer. It used to be 2045, but in the (appropriately named!) new book, the new delivery date is 2040. This is the year when you can start backing up your mind to the cloud. Subject to change, one would suppose, but mark your calendar just in case.
Will this opportunity be equally available. Certainly not, but don’t worry—even if your income has not increased in the last two decades, you are still much richer today. At least measured in computing cycles, which in Kutzweil’s world is the only really important currency. You get much more computing power today for the same money! It makes sense if your demand is computing. And all the rest can be simulated anyway, so put your money where your… eh, computer cycles are.
This phenomenon is known as Moore’s law—you know those lines about how a doorbell has more computing power these days than the Apollo rocket? That is Moore’s law: the observation that the amount of transistors on an integrated circuit chip doubles on average every two years. Or double computing power at same price every two years. Or half price for same computing power. You get it. Silicon Valley may treat this as a law of nature, but Wikipedia puts it as an observation, a projection, and an “experience”curve”—continued improvement based on growing experience. (Or “Wright’s law”, for those who like laws).
Will it last forever? Maybe, but there are some question marks. The economies of scale in chip production require increasingly large production facilities. There are limits to energy access. Microchips cannot be infinitely small; the electronic circuits require some nanometers to let the electrons pass; as those circuits become smaller, they become increasingly difficult to produce (waste increases). And so on. This is the logic of diminishing returns. Sure, with fusion energy and quantum computing, those things will be fixed. But those technologies are far beyond 2040. An old Greek philosopher has said that better than I could ever hope to. (If you click that blogpost, it will take you back to 2013 but the thinking has not evolved!)
But maybe more importantly: you have more computer cycles, but can you do more with them? The word processing software I use for writing this blog has not changed fundamentally since those I first came across 30+ years ago. Sure it looks better, has more fonts and (very annoying) spell-check. But all these are incremental developments. They don’t add up to a revolution. They don’t bring us closer to eternity (unless, of course, you write an immortal masterpiece).
Now you must choose your path, padawan. You can trust Kurzweil and prepare for bliss and immortality in the cloud, where lions and lambs live peacefully together. Or you can choose the bold path and challenge the concept. But before you move that way, let me warn you of Roko’s Basilisk. If you try to delay the arrival of the almighty artificial intelligence, it might punish you for it. And if you should depart meatspace before the singularity comes, the AI may still bring back a simulation of you. And torture it. In eternity.
All hail our robot overlords!
